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Reed's 2025 Predictions
Here’s What I Think the Creator Economy Looks Like in 2025
Each year, I like to share my predictions for the creator economy. Here’s what I’d expect in 2025…
1. The Macro Creator Is Coming To An End
I’ve noticed this trend over the last few years. As social media algorithms continue to improve at feeding you the videos you want to watch, creators seem to be having a harder time breaking through to the masses. For example, if you don’t watch sports content, it doesn’t matter how big the creator is—if they make sports content, you’re probably never going to see their videos. I also don't believe that platforms have an incentive to allow creators to get massive on their platforms because, eventually, those creators gain leverage over the platforms.
2. YouTube Will Continue To Dominate
It’s no surprise that YouTube continues to break out ahead of everyone else. TikTok has obviously been its biggest competition to date, but when you look at watch time, videos uploaded, connected TV viewership, and ad revenue, everything is trending up and to the right. While Netflix, Hulu, and Disney are battling for attention, YouTube feels like it’s taking up all of it.
3. Streaming Platforms Need to Figure Out How to Get More Content at a Cheaper Price
Netflix has obviously been the biggest winner in premium content, focusing on high-quality shows and creating original IP, but it feels like everyone will have to compete with TikTok and YouTube over the next five years. One key way to compete for attention is for streaming services to figure out how to deliver a higher volume of great content. They’ve all cut spending significantly over the last couple of years due to the writers' strikes and rising production costs. I’m really tired of logging into Netflix week after week and seeing the same shows on the front page.
4. OnlyFans, Fansly, and Passes Are Not Going Anywhere
Whether you like it or not, these subscription services have grown significantly in the last year— creators earned $6.63 billion in 2023. In early 2024, PornHub saw a 25% decrease in global visits compared to the previous year. As traffic to these websites declines, OnlyFans and similar platforms have been the beneficiaries of this shift. OnlyFans has put the power back in the hands of the creators.
And I think we also have to consider the psychology behind why people are turning to websites like OnlyFans. There’s an increasing trend in loneliness and feelings of aimlessness that I also think are contributing to OnlyFans success.
5. Video Podcasts Become the Norm
As with everything else, YouTube has started to dominate the podcast space—31% of weekly podcast listeners age 13 and up choose YouTube as the service they use most to listen to podcasts, surpassing Spotify (27%) and Apple Podcasts (15%). Most recently, Spotify launched Spotify for Creators, which allows users to upload videos and monetize their content. It seems clear that podcasts are going video-first, with video becoming just as much a priority as audio.
6. Creator-Led Brands Are Not Going Away
In 2023 and 2024, many creator-led brands launched across multiple categories, with the biggest winners being PRIME, Feastables, and Happy Dad. Creators are realizing how incredibly challenging it is to build a company from scratch while also maintaining their full-time creator careers. Every creator seems to think they can run a side project—whether it’s a consumer brand or an apparel company—but more are now returning to focusing solely on creating content.
That being said, I don’t think creator-led brands are going anywhere. While I believe we’ll see a significant decrease in the number of new ones launched, leveraging creators’ distribution for brand awareness remains a powerful advantage.
7. Content Creation Around Everyday Life
We’ve all seen the channels where an employee wears a GoPro at Starbucks, McDonald’s, or even on a farm. It feels like 2024 saw a massive rise in creators filming their jobs and everyday lives, and I think this trend will continue into 2025. Every day, I log on to YouTube and see a new content niche gaining popularity, with some of my favorites being creators mowing lawns—thanks Al Bladez and TK Lawns for the many hours of lawn mowing ASMR I watched in 2024.
8. Live Commerce Continues to Struggle in America
I spent two weeks in China and had the opportunity to spend time with a company called MeiOne, one of the largest live commerce businesses in the country. We’ve all seen the headlines about individual creators selling millions of dollars' worth of products in minutes in China. But experiencing it firsthand was something else—I watched a live stream of a female fashion show and saw the sheer amount of transactional volume happening in real time.
Live commerce has clearly become an incredibly impactful trend in China, but it’s important to recognize that this shift in consumer behavior has made buying products through live streams the norm there.
In America, it’s still very early days for live commerce. Adoption of transactions and buying something through a live stream has yet to catch on. In my opinion, most people’s first instinct is to go to a retailer like Walmart or Target, visit a grocery store, or simply order from Amazon—not to turn to a live stream to buy products.
Social platforms aren’t prioritizing live commerce right now. YouTube is focused on other initiatives, and while TikTok is pushing TikTok Shop, it’s still concerned with scaling in other areas. Meanwhile, the best creators in America aren’t focusing on live commerce. Most of the money here is still made through pulling millions of views on VODs on YouTube, securing massive brand sponsorships, or streaming on Twitch to tens of thousands of viewers.
9. Will TikTok Get Banned?
I don’t think any 2025 prediction list is complete without addressing the possibility of a TikTok ban. Personally, I don’t believe TikTok will be banned next year. The deadline is fast approaching—January 19th—but as of now, TikTok has filed for an extension, which hasn’t been granted.
There are several reasons why I think TikTok will not get banned in 2025. I’ve been paying close attention to what Trump has said recently, and his comments about having a "warm spot" in his heart for the platform have led me to believe that he’s changing his stance on how TikTok will be handled.
That said, there are still some issues to address, particularly around data privacy and ensuring that the CCP doesn't have undue governance over the platform. However, I do think we’ll reach some kind of resolution to keep TikTok operational in America.
Hope you all enjoyed the list this year, wishing you all the best in 2025!
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