Polymarket's Big Bet

October 17, 2024

We Need to Talk About Polymarket…

The other day, I was in my office and noticed people were placing bets on whether KSI’s new song, “Thick of It,” would break into Billboard’s Hot 100. And when I say placing bets, I mean actual wagers for real money. I was curious and started scrolling through everything you could bet on, and it quickly became clear that anything can be wagered on. I saw bets on whether IShowSpeed would break his backflip record, if Taylor Swift would get engaged this year, and even how many tweets Elon Musk would send this week.

Anything can become a wager.

How Does it Work?

Polymarket operates on a peer-to-peer wagering system. The person who creates the bet selects an outcome and puts money behind it. For example, someone might place $1,000 on a bet that Travis Kelce will propose to Taylor Swift by the end of the year. Others can then bet up to $1,000 that he won’t propose to her. More people can bet on either side, causing the odds and the buy-in to change, while the pool of money grows.

This is the biggest bet going on right now, you can see the volume at the top.

Polymarket uses blockchain-based currency to stake bets, so you’ll need a VPN to place wagers.

Why fandoms will benefit from their unique knowledge…

If you know about how KSI’s song was trending on YouTube, Twitter, and the creator space, you would have known that the 12% chance that he’d break into the Top 100 was actually very low. If you bought in at that time, your odds were almost 10X (by the way KSI’s song did break into the top 100).

#84 isn’t bad.

I think this gives a lot of power to people who are knowledgeable about industry trends and follow them closely on a daily basis. Take the KSI song as an example. Many people who live on the internet began to realize that the more criticism the song received, the higher its chances were of breaking into the Top 100. All of Twitter started talking about the song, streamers were reacting to it, and hundreds of YouTube videos were popping up on the homepage every hour.

Why is the relevant to the creator space?

I think the platform is about 90% politics at this point. The #1 bet right now is on the 2024 Presidential Election, with $2 billion on the line between Kamala and Trump. Anything can become a wager, and the people who understand the niches being bet on will have an edge.

Anyone who has unique insight about of a specific topic can now use that knowledge to make money. All the time people are saying, “I was Drake’s first fan.” Now you can capitalize on who you think is the next big artist or creator to blow up. The real knowledge from dedicated fandoms can now benefit you, allowing audiences to share in the upside of a creator’s trajectory.

The Big Takeaway

Polymarket is a platform for making wagers using blockchain currency. It’s clearly expanding beyond just political bets and into pop culture, music, and the creator economy. This peer-to-peer betting system benefits those who are deeply knowledgeable in niche industries. For example, I felt that giving KSI’s song only a 10% chance of entering the Top 100 was far too low. Beyond betting, Polymarket is also becoming a place to measure public sentiment (and we all know how unreliable polling can be).

Our first bet is that Night Light will get 30,000 subscribers before the end of the year. Who’s taking the bet?

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